How United Russia Didn't Immediately Agree on Bratsk's Mayoral Candidate

Petrov A.V.

Abstract

The article describes the mayoral election in the city of Bratsk, held in September 2024, which many experts consider Russia's most democratic over the past year. The key outcome was the defeat of Sergei V. Serebrennikov, who had served as mayor of Bratsk for nineteen years and won United Russia’s primaries, by another representative of the United Russia party, Aleksandr S. Dubrovin — the mayor of Bratsky District and a self-nominated candidate. Despite the incumbent mayor’s loss, United Russia declared the election results a success, as the newly elected mayor is also a party member.

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Irkutsk Oblast is often referred to as an island of political competition in modern Russia, and it demonstrated this once again in 2024 in the oblast's second-largest city, Bratsk. The mayoral election saw nomination of an official candidate from the United Russia party and a self-nominated candidate who nevertheless received the formal backing of Aleksandr V. Chernyshov, a United Russia member and Federation Council senator. The latter candidate prevailed over the party’s official nominee. In current political conditions, where electoral activity by all actors has been minimized to the greatest extent possible, the election in Bratsk could be interpreted as a resurgence of democracy, a throwback to a Russia 15–20 years ago. Let us try to make sense of how it happened.

For most Russians, Bratsk evokes images of Komsomol construction projects, singer Josef Kobzon, and composer and pianist Aleksandra Pakhmutova. In the 1960s, tens of thousands of Soviet citizens relocated here to build the Bratsk Hydroelectric Power Station, which remained the world’s largest until 1974. Yet by the 1990s, Bratsk had become better known for its criminal activity, particularly the so-called Bratsk OPG (organized crime group). This proved a difficult era for the city of 280,000, as factories tshu down and many inhabitants of "Baikal's northern capital" (as the city is known) simply relocated closer to Irkutsk or Krasnoyarsk. Yet even under these circumstances, Ivan P. Nevmerzhitsky, who served as chairman of the city executive committee in 1990–1994 and mayor in 1994–1998, managed to maintain stability in the city without social upheaval, subsequently handing over governance to Aleksandr K. Petrunkо, who was twice elected mayor in 1998 and 2002. Petrunkо is remembered as an effective administrator and civil servant, with many considering him the best mayor in Bratsk's modern history [6].

In 2006, the mayorship passed to Sergei V. Serebrennikov, then-head of the local FSB office, who won 66% of the vote among those in attendance. In 2009, Serebrennikov was reelected mayor with 77% of the vote, though his administration soon faced interference from Dmitry F. Mezentsev, then governor of Irkutsk Oblast.

At the time, the governors of Irkutsk Oblast left office rather quickly. After Governor Boris A. Govorin's resignation in 2005 (he was denied a third term appointment), the oblast spent two and a half years under Aleksandr G. Tishanin (head of the East Siberian Railway before election). His successor, Igor E. Yesipovsky (previously AvtoVAZ CEO and a State Duma deputy) served barely a year before perishing in a plane crash in May 2009. In 2009–2012, the oblast was under governorship of Dmitry F. Mezentsev, who arrived in Irkutsk from his post as Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council.

Dmitry F. Mezentsev initiated a comprehensive overhaul of Irkutsk's political agenda by appointing Vladimir V. Yakubovsky, mayor of Irkutsk since 1997, to the Federation Council. To fill the resulting vacancy in the regional capital's administration, he proposed Sergei Serebrennikov, mayor of Bratsk, who had recently been reelected to a second term by the residents. The decision proved unpopular among Irkutsk residents, and Serebrennikov failed to gain the necessary votes. Instead, Irkutsk residents elected CPRF nominee Viktor I. Kondrashov as mayor with 62.3% of the vote.

The residents of Bratsk similarly expressed dissatisfaction with Serebrennikov's departure, declining to support the establishment-backed independent candidates Aleksandr V. Doskalchuk (21.8%) and Sergei G. Grishin (16.8%), and electing CPRF candidate Aleksandr V. Serov (39.7%) instead. This electoral outcome led to Irkutsk Oblast being classified as part of the "red belt," as Communist Party candidates had now secured decisive victories in the region's two largest cities.

However, Aleksandr Serov's time in office was short. He was arrested while accepting a bribe and subsequently removed from office. In the 2014 mayoral election, Serebrennikov was reelected with 57.4% of the vote. He went on to win the 2019 election with minimal opposition (43.3%), and thus approached his fifth election campaign in 2024 with confidence, having secured support from authorities at all levels.

Bratsk is a major industrial city where one of the traditional elite groups has been led by Rusal, the company that operates an aluminum smelter (BrAZ) with an annual production capacity of one million tons, a power network consisting of the Bratsk Hydroelectric Power Station and two thermal power plants (TPP-6 and TPP-7), as well as cryptocurrency mining farms. According to expert estimates, Irkutsk Oblast accounts for approximately 10% of global mining production. Rusal frequently exerts influence over political processes, including the election of city council deputies. Until 2024, the company supported Mayor Sergei Serebrennikov, and its financial and administrative resources proved sufficient to secure victory in mayoral election.

The second elite group is represented by the Ilim Group (Bratsk timber industry complex) and Transneft East (operator of the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean oil pipeline, among others). This group's representatives have less influence on politics, preferring instead to maintain cooperative relations or negotiate agreements with the government. They do not maintain independent factions within the City Duma.

The third elite group comprises local business representatives. Given the city's geographical isolation from major production centers, Bratsk has developed self-sufficient systems for construction, maintenance, food distribution, and related services. Some members of this group transitioned into legitimate business during the 2000s after involvement in criminal enterprises during the 1990s. There is also Aleksandr Chernyshov's group, in a category of its own. Chernyshov is a former Bratsk entrepreneur and local politician, who now serves as a member of the Federation Council and remains actively engaged in political competition. Members of his team hold positions in the Legislative Assembly of Irkutsk Oblast, as well as in Bratsk's city and district dumas.

Beyond that, Bratsk demonstrates relatively developed civil society institutions, including print journalism outlets, two local television channels and independent online publications.

In May 2024, Bratsk Mayor Sergei Serebrennikov won the United Russia party primaries (preliminary voting), receiving 7,606 votes and surpassing both Valentina V. Shcherbakova, Deputy General Director of OAO Zheleznodorozhnik (4,067 votes) and Artyom V. Kapustin, Deputy General Director of OOO DeKom (3,719 votes) [1].

On June 24, 2024, during an extraordinary session, Bratsk City Duma deputies resolved to hold simultaneous elections for mayor and Duma deputies on September 8. The election campaign commenced on June 17, following the publication of the official decision in a local newspaper.

From the start of the campaign, experts noted the elections would prove challenging. First, only 14 out of 17 United Russia members and supporters passed the preliminary voting stage. Candidates opposing the incumbent mayor won in three constituencies.

Second, since 2020, Bratsk has implemented several decisions that sparked public debate, with many residents expressing their discontent on social media platforms. For example, in summer 2020 when the School of Olympic Reserve removed from its name the reference to Alexander Yu. Zubkov, an honorary citizen of Bratsk and Olympic champion who had been stripped of his medals due to doping scandals. This decision received nationwide media coverage [10]. Local Telegram channels, however, framed the story primarily within a political context, given Zubkov's previous mayoral candidacy in 2019 (where he placed second with 16.7%) and his repeated criticism of Sergei Serebrennikov.

Third, in December 2021, Mayor Sergei Serebrennikov was awarded the title of Honorary Citizen of the city. While the city council deputies unanimously endorsed this decision [7], activists and certain journalists (like Yelena Kutergina) thought that awarding such titles during active tenure was inappropriate.

Fourth, in spring 2023, Bratsk Drama Theatre removed the play "Goat Island" from its repertoire following an anonymous viewer's complaint, a denunciation. In response, Oleg V. Popov, a deputy of the Irkutsk Oblast Legislative Assembly, proposed collecting signatures in support of the production, stating: "We go to the theater for meaning, not for breasts".

Even before the official launch of Bratsk's mayoral campaign in spring 2024, Telegram channels had already begun active discussions about potential candidates. For example, "Pervy v Bratske" (Rus. for "the first in Bratsk") actively instigated audience to vote against the incumbent mayor and to consider other candidates. Discussion focused on several figures, including Yevgeny Yu. Zenkin, General Director of the Bratsk Aluminum Plant; Arkady V. Nesterenko, City Duma deputy; and Aleksandr S. Dubrovin, Mayor of Bratsky District. None of these individuals ultimately participated in United Russia's preliminary voting, however. During the May holidays, severe fires broke out in the town of Vikhorevka (the largest settlement in Bratsky District). The team of Mayor Aleksandr Dubrovin, with support from regional authorities, successfully managed the crisis (two fatalities, thirteen individuals hospitalized). In the aftermath, residents began collecting signatures in support of Dubrovin's candidacy, perceiving him as a young, proactive candidate and, crucially, a United Russia party member who actively aligned with the political course of both the governor and the president.

As one Telegram channel noted at the time, Dubrovin was one of the most prominent "phenoms" among Irkutsk's emerging generation of politicians. In less than five years as mayor of Bratsky District, he managed to initiate several major renovation and construction projects, transforming what was once considered a "depressed suburb" of Bratsk into a hub of tourism and infrastructure.

On June 21, Aleksandr Dubrovin posted a photograph titled "Time for Change" featuring a mural of Viktor Tsoi, which effectively marked the launch of his campaign for Bratsk mayor. Only later did experts conclude that Dubrovin’s participation had already been agreed upon in Moscow and that he had chosen to run as an independent candidate and began collecting signatures with the support of Senator Chernyshov.

A total of seven candidates registered for the mayoral election: Sergei V. Serebrennikov (United Russia); Yekaterina A. Anisimova, an entrepreneur (Communists of Russia); Konstantin V. Klimov, head of the national sports team at Russia's Center for Sports Training and mayor of Bratsk from 2011 to 2014 (LDPR); Anastasiya V. Shinkarenko, general director of the Bratsk Television and Radio Company (Civic Platform); Dmitry V. Yablontsev, an entrepreneur (New People); Aleksandr S. Dubrovin, mayor of Bratsky District (independent); and Yelena V. Kutergina, a journalist and public activist (CPRF).

The CPRF candidate was denied registration, despite Yelena Kutergina having launched a particularly vigorous campaign that could have significantly impacted the election outcome. She conducted near-daily voter meetings, traveled to the city's most remote districts, organized community clean-up events and had gained significant momentum to enter the race. Kutergina had substantial experience as former editor of the Vecherny Bratsk newspaper, from which she was dismissed in 2019 by the publisher, who was a personal friend of Mayor Sergei Serebrennikov and could not allow sharp criticism of his administration.

According to the decision of the Bratsk Territorial Election Commission, Yelena Kutergina committed two procedural violations: she failed to submit candidate and family expenditure reports in the prescribed format and her foreign asset declarations were improperly documented.

Sergei G. Levchenko, First Secretary of the Irkutsk Regional CPRF Committee, stated that "the commission's eleven-page decision focuses exclusively on document formatting errors while completely disregarding the document's substance. At this rate, they will soon be rejecting documents based on the color of paper they are printed on". The former governor stated that the decision had been made to benefit the incumbent mayor, adding that the CPRF would not recognize the election results conducted without their candidate's participation [12]. CPRF organized several protest rallies, though these failed to bring any results.

Furthermore, Yelena Kutergina granted an interview to the Lyudi Baykala media outlet, where she expressed her aspirations to participate in the election: "I hope the state will support me. Without any threats and fabricated cases, allowing me to complete the race. I believe in our country, in the president, and that justice still exists in Russia. I believe the country will give young, strong leaders the opportunity to elevate the nation's standing". On August 9, the Bratsk City Court rejected Kutergina's lawsuit, citing an incorrect submission date for documentation regarding the absence of foreign assets. This ruling was upheld by the Irkutsk Oblast Court on August 21.

Aleksandr Dubrovin's participation in the election was met with mixed reactions among segments of Bratsk’s elite and, naturally, in Irkutsk. Initially, it appeared that the authorities had settled on their candidate — Sergei Serebrennikov. However, it later emerged that Aleksandr Chernyshev, a Federation Council member and native of Bratsk with considerable political and financial influence in the city, had decided by spring 2025 to withdraw support from Serebrennikov and instead back "his" candidate. This move was reportedly coordinated not only with the Presidential Executive Office but also, according to Aleksandr Dubrovin himself, with Governor Igor I. Kobzev. According to political analyst Sergei F. Shmidt, the senator may have proposed an unconventional arrangement to the Presidential Executive Office, where "one candidate clears the primaries while another runs as an independent, yet both pledge loyalty to the governor, which would add zest" [8]. This was initially perceived as a Bratsk-specific "anomaly," with two United Russia affiliates competing directly against one another.

The electoral campaign featured several notable elements.

One was grassroots outreach. Both candidates conducted door-to-door canvassing. Telegram channels provided near-daily updates on their neighborhood visits, often publishing photos showing audiences of 10–20 voters.

The campaign featured intensive visual propaganda, particularly in the form of banners. Notably, Dubrovin's campaign appeared to deploy significantly more such materials, despite Serebrennikov's institutional support from law enforcement structures.

Another was a rift within United Russia branch in Bratsk. In certain constituencies, Mayor Sergei Serebrennikov and City Duma Chair Larisa M. Pavlova endorsed candidates from other parties who were loyal to the mayor — specifically Olga V. Krampit, Andrei A. Kozlov, and Mariya V. Nepomnyashchikh of A Just Russia — over the winners of the party primaries.

The election outcomes ultimately contradicted pre-election polling results. On July 22, IrkutskMedia published responses to the question of who Bratsk residents would vote fore if mayoral elections were held this weekend. Bratsk residents would vote as follows: 42.3% for Serebrennikov, 12.1% for Dubrovin, 9.7% for Kutergina, 6.5% for Klimov, 5.6% for Anisimova, 2.3% for Shinkarenko, 2.1% for Yablontsev, 3.6% "would spoil the ballot", 15.7% "would not vote" [13].

A mass telephone survey was conducted regarding the upcoming elections, yet Aleksandr Dubrovin's name was absent among the candidates [15].

Viral videos. Several days prior to the election, an AI-generated music video titled "Farewell, Farewell, Serebrennikov" was published on social media, which went viral across all platforms.

A concert featuring pop stars on election day. On September 8, a festival featuring Klava Koka was held in Bratsk city center, attracting several thousand young attendees. Whether these young attendees went on to the polls remains an open question.

A scandal with a municipal newspaper with personal involvement of Svetlana I. Mavlyukeyeva, Head of the Information Analysis Department of Bratsk City Administration. On August 28, 2024, police arrived at the printing house producing the Ogni Angary municipal newspaper and confiscated the entire print run, since the issue contained material discrediting mayoral candidate Aleksandr Dubrovin. A video surfaced on social media showing police officers entering the printing house. Almost immediately, Mayor Sergei Serebrennikov issued a statement expressing bewilderment at the police actions. He submitted an official inquiry to the Prosecutor of Irkutsk Oblast. It later became known that printing house staff had shared the digital draft layout of the issue with Aleksandr Dubrovin’s campaign headquarters prior to the actual printing. By August 29, the newspaper was being distributed across the city, with public interest demonstrably exceeding the ordered print run due to coverage in Telegram channels and independent media.

Governor Igor Kobzev’s speech two days before the election ultimately failed to address the key question: which candidate the regional administration supported. Despite being aware of preliminary polling data, Kobzev stated on September 4 that "both I and the regional government will obviously work with whoever wins the election. On September 8, Bratsk should vote thoughtfully for a new mayor to secure the city’s future", but the name of the candidate officially endorsed at the United Russia conference was never mentioned [5].

On September 5, Konstantin Klimov declared at a rally that "the current situation in Bratsk compels us to make a difficult yet rational choice for the city’s benefit," urging "supporters and all Bratsk residents to back Aleksandr Dubrovin in the election, regardless of party affiliation" [9]. However, by this point, there was no actual way to remove Klimov’s name from the ballot.

On September 6, Aleksandr Dubrovin gave an extensive interview to Irkutsk journalist Pavel Stepanov, characterizing the election as the most competitive political race in Russia [14]. This only heightened the suspense surrounding the outcome.

On September 8, 2024, independent candidate Aleksandr Dubrovin was elected mayor of Bratsk, receiving 44,989 votes (68.55%). Sergei Serebrennikov placed second with 14,370 votes (21.89%).

Other candidates placed as follows: Yekaterina Anisimova with 1,411 votes (2.15%); Konstantin Klimov with 1,348 votes (2.05%); Dmitry Yablontsev with 776 votes (1.18%); and Anastasiya Shinkarenko with 686 votes (1.05%).

The newly elected deputies to the City Duma included United Russia representatives T.P. Zakharova (Constituency No. 1), O.V. Yankova (Constituency No. 2), A.V. Aksyutin (No. 3), D.I. Shepel (No. 5), A.V. Sazonkin (No. 6), L.M. Pavlova (No. 9), S.G. Grishin (No. 10), Ye.V. Nikiforova (No. 12), A.V. Nesterenko (No. 13), A.A. Semkin (No. 14), Ye.Ye. Skornyakov (No. 15), D.V. Kozheurov (No. 16), A.V. Antonenkov (No. 18), A.L. Payukov (No. 21), A.M. Yudilevich (No. 22), A.V. Murashova (No. 24), and R.R. Klyain (No. 25); LDPR members G.A. Lyubenkov (No. 7), A.A. Semenkov (No. 11), Ya.A. Sinyavskaya (No. 20), and M.A. Ignatov (No. 23); New People party members O.S. Lapukha (No. 17) and R.P. Petrov (No. 19); as well as independent candidates A.Yu. Zubkov (No. 4) and N.N. Ochkas (No. 8).

One of the possible reasons for Serebrennikov's electoral defeat was his negative rating at the start of the campaign. Vedomosti newspaper reported that while he entered the race with the highest name recognition, he also carried the highest percentage (over 30%) of voters who explicitly stated they would not vote for him. This negative rating grew amid conflicts with journalists and civil activists, as well as politically misdirected public statements. For example, on May 9, 2024, he advised the German Chancellor and French President to recall some historical events:

"Macron, what are you doing? Your troops were at Moscow, ours reached Paris. Scholz, what are you doing? Your troops were on our soil, we reached Berlin. And today, our men retain vivid historical memory of the route to Europe; if necessary, they could march all the way to Berlin and Paris again" [2].

The second factor was a general weariness about the lack of any change in the city. This applies to the mayor himself as well as to minor changes in the lives of residents. Political analyst Alexander Kynev made a good point about Serebrennikov having "overstayed his tenure" [4], while Dmitry Yelovsky observed that "Serebrennikov lost to himself" [8].

The third factor was Dubrovin’s more dynamic campaign strategy. He actively participated in rallies, criticized the incumbent administration, and offered specific solutions. He did it all while consistently emphasizing his affiliation with United Russia. On the evening of September 8, Sergei Perminov, Deputy Secretary of the United Russia General Council, stated that "in Bratsk, both the voters and United Russia have emerged victorious. We have formed a political majority faction and accomplished all objectives for the city's continued development".

The fourth factor was tacit support from federal authorities, which caused a split between local and regional elites. In this context, Aleksandr Dubrovin benefited from support of Aleksandr Chernyshov, Yelena Kutergina, numerous deputies (including United Russia members) and Telegram channels. This ultimately atomized the traditional administrative resource.

The fifth factor was the competitive nature of the election itself. It should be noted that Sergei Serebrennikov only secured victories in elections with no strong candidates. In other cases he was ultimately unsuccessful; we might compare the 2010 mayoral election in Irkutsk and the 2024 election in Bratsk. The results were identical — a defeat with an over-40% difference.

The sixth factor was the interest in the campaign, which drove voters to the polls. Bratsk recorded 40.6% turnout, significantly exceeding the regional average of 24.2% during the unified election day.

Political analysts noted that Aleksandr Dubrovin’s victory came as no surprise to Sergei Serebrennikov. As political scientist Sergei Schmidt observed: "There is an element of hurt that is all too human. He accomplished much for the city and genuinely loves Bratsk, yet suffered a decisive defeat. He got 21%, which is nothing but an inertial result. His campaign failed to expand inertia. This is certainly a failure of political strategists" [11].

It is noteworthy that in an interview, political analyst Alexander Kynev called the very existence of mayoral elections in Bratsk a miracle: "The survival of direct mayoral elections in Bratsk seems almost miraculous. People there can take pride in this achievement, they did well there" [3].

Aleksandr Dubrovin’s victory brought Bratsk into the federal political discourse. Yet the election of a new mayor did little to alleviate the challenges facing the city. Six months post-election, we can say that the administration team remains incomplete, several specialists from Serebrennikov’s time in office having resigned and relocated to other cities. Olga V. Yankova was elected Chair of the Bratsk City Duma, but she has a lower public profile compared to her predecessor Larisa M. Pavlova. Pavlova has since become more unrestrained, hosting live broadcasts, publishing video commentaries, and even running in the mayoral election for Bratsky District (where she placed third).

The split within the local United Russia branch persists. Arkady Nesterenko was elected head of the United Russia faction in the City Duma following a decision by the local party conference. Notably, neither the then-chair of Bratsk’s party branch Sergei Serebrennikov nor former Duma chair Larisa Pavlova received invitations to the event. Both former officials subsequently declared the conference illegitimate.

On December 25, 2024, Bratsk Mayor Aleksandr Dubrovin assumed leadership of the local United Russia branch. On April 14, 2025, deputies Denis I. Shepel and Yelena V. Nikiforova submitted formal notices of resignation from the faction — a decision publicly supported by Pavlova. In her Telegram channel, Pavlova wrote: "Given the recent developments within Bratsk’s local party branch, I support Denis Ivanovich’s decision."

On August 23, 2024, candidate Konstantin Klimov filed a lawsuit against candidate Yekaterina Anisimova, alleging defamation of honor, dignity and professional reputation in campaign materials titled "Who Wants Change in Bratsk". In early December 2024, the Bratsk City Court ruled to impose a 30,000-ruble moral damages penalty against Yekaterina Anisimova. However, on March 17, 2025, the Irkutsk Oblast Court overturned the lower court's decision, ruling in Anisimova's favor after determining the disputed content constituted standard campaign material.

Aleksander Dubrovin’s most significant political achievement was his protégé Nikolai Yu. Druzhinin's election as mayor of Vikhorevka on February 2, 2025 with 50.3% of the vote.

On September 19, 2024, Dubrovin’s own inauguration ceremony was held at the Bratsk Drama Theater. Former mayor Sergei Serebrennikov was not in attendance, despite Bratsk’s longstanding tradition of inviting previous mayors to such ceremonies. The reasons for the nonattendance of the official who governed the city for 19 years remain unknown. In a January 2025 interview, Serebrennikov revealed that Governor Kobzev had not contacted him once since the election. Nevertheless, he intends to remain in politics, stating his readiness to participate in the September 2025 Irkutsk Oblast gubernatorial race.

Received 15.04.2025, revision received 28.04.2025.

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References

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14. Stepanov P. Zachem Dubrovin idyot v mery Bratska? Istoriya samykh konkurentnykh vyborov Rossii 2024 [Why is Dubrovin Running for Bratsk Mayor? History of the Most Competitive Election in 2024 Russia]. – Rutube, 06.06.2024. URL: https://rutube.ru/video/1bfc7357ec39841d4269458d368bcca5/ (accessed 15.04.2025). (In Russ.) - https://rutube.ru/video/1bfc7357ec39841d4269458d368bcca5/
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